Advanced Techniques in PRM

What advanced techniques might be applied in quantitative project risk analysis?

Advanced Techniques - 1

·      To make effective decisions regarding risk

·         You need to know the potential outcomes

·         From action alternatives, risk factors and given quantities

·      The key to risk analysis

·         Develop a model

·         Clearly indicating risk factors and their relationships

·         Without getting into unnecessary detail

Advanced Techniques - 2

Approaches typically used

·         The successive principle

·         Cost relevance analysis

·         Influence diagramming

·         Sensitivity analysis

·         Each approach has its own strengths & weaknesses

Advanced Techniques - 3

·      The successive principle

·         Starts with the total project

·         Looks for elements with greatest uncertainty

·         Selected for closer study

·         Repeated until acceptable overall level is achieved

·         Or further detailing is impractical

·      Cost relevance analysis

·         Examines specific characteristics of the project

·         Relative to a set of factors

·         Usually associated with cost overruns

Influence diagramming

·      Influence diagrams

·         Are displayed graphically

·         Can get very complex

·         And must be approached systematically

·      So start with a detailed description

·         Of the entire project or major element

·         As best known at the time

·         Such as a detailed project schedule

Influence diagramming: Basics

·      The four basic elements

·         Of the influence diagram are

·         Decision alternatives

·         Risk factors or uncertainties

·         Given quantities

·         Calculated quantities or value models

·      These provide the basis

·         For developing the influence diagram

·         See details on the next pages

Decision alternatives

·      Assemble the decision alternatives

·         Including various project alternatives

·         Such as the project organizational structure to use

·         Or in-house work versus service providers

·      Note

·         Decision alternatives are mutually exclusive

·         Implying only one option can be selected

·         Typically at a specific time in the project's life span

Risk Factors

·      Risk factors specific to the project

·         Are risks beyond the control of the project team

·         E.g. political influence, or inflation

·         Can be either positive or negative

·         Relative to the expected value

·         Some may be distributed over a broad range

·         Or have a single deterministic value

·      Given or calculated quantities

·         Given quantities are preset by external conditions

·         Calculated quantities result from the chosen model